Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean

Manon Clairbaux; William W. L. Cheung; Paul Mathewson; Warren Porter; Nicolas Courbin; Jérôme Fort; Hallvard Strøm; Børge Moe; Per Fauchald; Sébastien Descamps; Hálfdan H.  Helgason; Vegard S. Bråthen; Benjamin Merkel; Tycho Anker-Nilssen; Ingar S. Bringsvor; Olivier Chastel; Signe Christensen-Dalsgaard; Jóhannis Danielsen; Francis Daunt; Nina Dehnhard; Kjell E. Erikstad; Alexeï Ezhov; Maria Gavrilo; Yuri Krasnov; Magdalene Langset; Svein-Håkon Lorentsen; Mark Newell; Bergur Olsen; Tone K. Reiertsen; Geir Systad; Thorkell L. Thórarinsson; Mark Baran; Tony Diamond; Annette L. Fayet; Michelle G. Fitzsimmons; Morten Frederiksen; H. Grant Gilchrist; Tim Guilford; Nicholas P. Huffeldt; Mark Jessopp; Kasper L. Johansen; Amy-Lee Kouwenberg; Jannie Fries Linnebjerg; Laura McFarlane Tranquilla; Mark Mallory; Flemming Ravn Merkel; William A. Montevecchi; Anders Mosbech; Aevar Petersen; David Grémillet

doi:10.1111/gcb.15497

Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean

Manon Clairbaux, William W. L. Cheung, Paul Mathewson, Warren Porter, Nicolas Courbin, Jérôme Fort, Hallvard Strøm, Børge Moe, Per Fauchald, Sébastien Descamps, Hálfdan H. Helgason, Vegard S. Bråthen, Benjamin Merkel, Tycho Anker-Nilssen, Ingar S. Bringsvor, Olivier Chastel, Signe Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jóhannis Danielsen, Francis Daunt, Nina DehnhardKjell E. Erikstad, Alexeï Ezhov, Maria Gavrilo, Yuri Krasnov, Magdalene Langset, Svein-Håkon Lorentsen, Mark Newell, Bergur Olsen, Tone K. Reiertsen, Geir Systad, Thorkell L. Thórarinsson, Mark Baran, Tony Diamond, Annette L. Fayet, Michelle G. Fitzsimmons, Morten Frederiksen, H. Grant Gilchrist, Tim Guilford, Nicholas P. Huffeldt, Mark Jessopp, Kasper L. Johansen, Amy-Lee Kouwenberg, Jannie Fries Linnebjerg, Laura McFarlane Tranquilla, Mark Mallory, Flemming Ravn Merkel, William A. Montevecchi, Anders Mosbech, Aevar Petersen, David Grémillet

Havstovan - Faroe Marine Research Institute

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

17 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic seabird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2°C under a “no mitigation” scenario, modifying seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that meeting Paris agreement objectives will limit changes in seabird selected habitat location and size in the North Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century. We thereby provide key information for the design of adaptive marine-protected areas in a changing ocean.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1458-1469
Number of pages	13
Journal	Global Change Biology
Volume	27
Issue number	7
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497
Publication status	Published - 21 Dec 2020

Keywords

DBEM
energy requirement
Mechanistic habitat selection
NicheMapperTM
Paris agreement
RCP scenarios
seabird distrutions
seabird migration

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1111/gcb.15497

Cite this

Clairbaux, M., Cheung, W. W. L., Mathewson, P., Porter, W., Courbin, N., Fort, J., Strøm, H., Moe, B., Fauchald, P., Descamps, S., Helgason, H. H., Bråthen, V. S., Merkel, B., Anker-Nilssen, T., Bringsvor, I. S., Chastel, O., Christensen-Dalsgaard, S., Danielsen, J., Daunt, F., ... Grémillet, D. (2020). Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean. Global Change Biology, 27(7), 1458-1469. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497

@article{4309f32b0a0f4f489600790e97a502ef,

title = "Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean",

abstract = "We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic seabird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2°C under a “no mitigation” scenario, modifying seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that meeting Paris agreement objectives will limit changes in seabird selected habitat location and size in the North Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century. We thereby provide key information for the design of adaptive marine-protected areas in a changing ocean.",

keywords = "DBEM, energy requirement, Mechanistic habitat selection, NicheMapperTM, Paris agreement, RCP scenarios, seabird distrutions, seabird migration",

author = "Manon Clairbaux and Cheung, {William W. L.} and Paul Mathewson and Warren Porter and Nicolas Courbin and J{\'e}r{\^o}me Fort and Hallvard Str{\o}m and B{\o}rge Moe and Per Fauchald and S{\'e}bastien Descamps and Helgason, {H{\'a}lfdan H.} and Br{\aa}then, {Vegard S.} and Benjamin Merkel and Tycho Anker-Nilssen and Bringsvor, {Ingar S.} and Olivier Chastel and Signe Christensen-Dalsgaard and J{\'o}hannis Danielsen and Francis Daunt and Nina Dehnhard and Erikstad, {Kjell E.} and Alexe{\"i} Ezhov and Maria Gavrilo and Yuri Krasnov and Magdalene Langset and Svein-H{\aa}kon Lorentsen and Mark Newell and Bergur Olsen and Reiertsen, {Tone K.} and Geir Systad and Th{\'o}rarinsson, {Thorkell L.} and Mark Baran and Tony Diamond and Fayet, {Annette L.} and Fitzsimmons, {Michelle G.} and Morten Frederiksen and Gilchrist, {H. Grant} and Tim Guilford and Huffeldt, {Nicholas P.} and Mark Jessopp and Johansen, {Kasper L.} and Amy-Lee Kouwenberg and Linnebjerg, {Jannie Fries} and Tranquilla, {Laura McFarlane} and Mark Mallory and Merkel, {Flemming Ravn} and Montevecchi, {William A.} and Anders Mosbech and Aevar Petersen and David Gr{\'e}millet",

year = "2020",

month = dec,

day = "21",

doi = "10.1111/gcb.15497",

language = "English",

volume = "27",

pages = "1458--1469",

journal = "Global Change Biology",

issn = "1354-1013",

publisher = "John Wiley & Sons, Ltd",

number = "7",

}

Clairbaux, M, Cheung, WWL, Mathewson, P, Porter, W, Courbin, N, Fort, J, Strøm, H, Moe, B, Fauchald, P, Descamps, S, Helgason, HH, Bråthen, VS, Merkel, B, Anker-Nilssen, T, Bringsvor, IS, Chastel, O, Christensen-Dalsgaard, S, Danielsen, J, Daunt, F, Dehnhard, N, Erikstad, KE, Ezhov, A, Gavrilo, M, Krasnov, Y, Langset, M, Lorentsen, S-H, Newell, M, Olsen, B, Reiertsen, TK, Systad, G, Thórarinsson, TL, Baran, M, Diamond, T, Fayet, AL, Fitzsimmons, MG, Frederiksen, M, Gilchrist, HG, Guilford, T, Huffeldt, NP, Jessopp, M, Johansen, KL, Kouwenberg, A-L, Linnebjerg, JF, Tranquilla, LM, Mallory, M, Merkel, FR, Montevecchi, WA, Mosbech, A, Petersen, A & Grémillet, D 2020, 'Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean', Global Change Biology, vol. 27, no. 7, pp. 1458-1469. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497

TY - JOUR

T1 - Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean

AU - Clairbaux, Manon

AU - Cheung, William W. L.

AU - Mathewson, Paul

AU - Porter, Warren

AU - Courbin, Nicolas

AU - Fort, Jérôme

AU - Strøm, Hallvard

AU - Moe, Børge

AU - Fauchald, Per

AU - Descamps, Sébastien

AU - Helgason, Hálfdan H.

AU - Bråthen, Vegard S.

AU - Merkel, Benjamin

AU - Anker-Nilssen, Tycho

AU - Bringsvor, Ingar S.

AU - Chastel, Olivier

AU - Christensen-Dalsgaard, Signe

AU - Danielsen, Jóhannis

AU - Daunt, Francis

AU - Dehnhard, Nina

AU - Erikstad, Kjell E.

AU - Ezhov, Alexeï

AU - Gavrilo, Maria

AU - Krasnov, Yuri

AU - Langset, Magdalene

AU - Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon

AU - Newell, Mark

AU - Olsen, Bergur

AU - Reiertsen, Tone K.

AU - Systad, Geir

AU - Thórarinsson, Thorkell L.

AU - Baran, Mark

AU - Diamond, Tony

AU - Fayet, Annette L.

AU - Fitzsimmons, Michelle G.

AU - Frederiksen, Morten

AU - Gilchrist, H. Grant

AU - Guilford, Tim

AU - Huffeldt, Nicholas P.

AU - Jessopp, Mark

AU - Johansen, Kasper L.

AU - Kouwenberg, Amy-Lee

AU - Linnebjerg, Jannie Fries

AU - Tranquilla, Laura McFarlane

AU - Mallory, Mark

AU - Merkel, Flemming Ravn

AU - Montevecchi, William A.

AU - Mosbech, Anders

AU - Petersen, Aevar

AU - Grémillet, David

PY - 2020/12/21

Y1 - 2020/12/21

N2 - We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic seabird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2°C under a “no mitigation” scenario, modifying seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that meeting Paris agreement objectives will limit changes in seabird selected habitat location and size in the North Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century. We thereby provide key information for the design of adaptive marine-protected areas in a changing ocean.

AB - We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic seabird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2°C under a “no mitigation” scenario, modifying seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that meeting Paris agreement objectives will limit changes in seabird selected habitat location and size in the North Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century. We thereby provide key information for the design of adaptive marine-protected areas in a changing ocean.

KW - DBEM

KW - energy requirement

KW - Mechanistic habitat selection

KW - NicheMapperTM

KW - Paris agreement

KW - RCP scenarios

KW - seabird distrutions

KW - seabird migration

U2 - 10.1111/gcb.15497

DO - 10.1111/gcb.15497

M3 - Article

SN - 1354-1013

VL - 27

SP - 1458

EP - 1469

JO - Global Change Biology

JF - Global Change Biology

IS - 7

ER -

Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Fingerprint

Cite this