@inbook{b72671cb53e546bd9df9a18f11e8d456,
title = "Forecast of ensemble power production by grid-connected PV systems",
abstract = "The contribution of power production by PV systems to the electricity\textbackslash{}nsupply is constantly increasing. Anefficient use of the fluctuating\textbackslash{}nsolar power production will highly benefit from forecast information\textbackslash{}non the expected powerproduction. This forecast information is necessary\textbackslash{}nfor the management of the electricity grids and for solar energy\textbackslash{}ntrading. This paper will present and evaluate an approach to forecast\textbackslash{}nregional PV power production. The forecast quality was investigated\textbackslash{}nfor single systems and for ensembles of distributed PV systems. Due\textbackslash{}nto spatial averaging effects the forecast for an ensemble of distributed\textbackslash{}nsystems shows higher quality than the forecast for single systems.\textbackslash{}nForecast errors are reduced to an RMSE of 0.05 Wh/Wp for an ensemble\textbackslash{}nof the size of Germany compared to a RMSE of 0.13 Wh/Wp for single\textbackslash{}nPV systems. Besides the forecast accuracy, also the specification\textbackslash{}nof the forecast uncertainty is an important issue for an effective\textbackslash{}napplication. An approach to derive weather specific confidence intervals\textbackslash{}nis presented that describe the maximum expecteduncertainty of the\textbackslash{}nforecast.",
keywords = "forecasting, grid-connected, pv system, solar radiation",
author = "E Lorenz and D Heinemann and H Wickramarathne and Beyer, \{H G\} and S Bofinger",
year = "2007",
language = "English",
isbn = "3-936338-24-8",
series = "20th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference",
pages = "3--9",
booktitle = "20th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference",
}
