Abstract
The purpose of this study was to examine whether situational indicators have an impact on the
shot placement in penalty kicks in an elite football league. A retrospective observational
longitudinal study design was adopted to examine 263 penalty kicks from the Danish top-tier
from the 2015/16 to the 2019/20 competitive season (pre-COVID-19). 74.1% of all shots (n =
195) resulted in a goal, 19.4% of all shots (n = 51) were saved, 6.5% of all shots (n = 17) were
missed. 70.7% of all shots (n = 186) targeted the lower section of the goal, while the remaining
29.3% (n = 77) targeted the upper section of the goal.
A binary logistic regression analysis was conducted to examine a difference in shot placement
distribution caused by multiple situational variables. The analysis demonstrated a difference
(phigher probability of a penalty kick targeting the lower section of the goal in the first 15 minutes
of a match half (p = 0.024). In terms of match score when the penalty kick was awarded, kicking
team level, playing at home or away, shooter’s tactical position, season and match day, no
significant difference was found. Nagelkerke R Square was determined at 0.65.
The study finds that penalty kicks have a significantly higher probability of being directed towards
the upper section of the goal, when a penalty kick is awarded during the last 15 minutes of a
football match compared to the rest of the match, as well as when a penalty kick is awarded
during the last 15 minutes of a match half, compared to the first 15 minutes of a match half.
shot placement in penalty kicks in an elite football league. A retrospective observational
longitudinal study design was adopted to examine 263 penalty kicks from the Danish top-tier
from the 2015/16 to the 2019/20 competitive season (pre-COVID-19). 74.1% of all shots (n =
195) resulted in a goal, 19.4% of all shots (n = 51) were saved, 6.5% of all shots (n = 17) were
missed. 70.7% of all shots (n = 186) targeted the lower section of the goal, while the remaining
29.3% (n = 77) targeted the upper section of the goal.
A binary logistic regression analysis was conducted to examine a difference in shot placement
distribution caused by multiple situational variables. The analysis demonstrated a difference
(phigher probability of a penalty kick targeting the lower section of the goal in the first 15 minutes
of a match half (p = 0.024). In terms of match score when the penalty kick was awarded, kicking
team level, playing at home or away, shooter’s tactical position, season and match day, no
significant difference was found. Nagelkerke R Square was determined at 0.65.
The study finds that penalty kicks have a significantly higher probability of being directed towards
the upper section of the goal, when a penalty kick is awarded during the last 15 minutes of a
football match compared to the rest of the match, as well as when a penalty kick is awarded
during the last 15 minutes of a match half, compared to the first 15 minutes of a match half.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages | 276 |
| Number of pages | 1 |
| Publication status | Accepted/In press - 2022 |
| Event | World Congress on Science and Soccer - Coimbra, Portugal Duration: 15 Jun 2022 → 17 Jun 2022 |
Conference
| Conference | World Congress on Science and Soccer |
|---|---|
| Country/Territory | Portugal |
| City | Coimbra |
| Period | 15/06/22 → 17/06/22 |